_Brittle Power_ (Was "Re: Power outage")

[LeBaron & Alrich]

John L Rice <Drummer@ImJohn.com> wrote:

<snip>
> Could you explain how this sort of multi-state outage can even happen? If
> it's really that fragile of a system it seems like it wouldn't take much of
> a natural disaster or terrorist strike to put the whole of North America in
> darkness.

I highly recommend this book:

_Brittle Power, Energy Strategy for National Security_
Amory B. Lovins & L. Hunter Lovins
Brick House Publishing Company
ISBN 0-931790-28-X

This first came out in 1982, has a foreword by Admiral Thomas H. Moorer
and R. James Woolsey, more typos than The Hulk has warts, but lays out
what a mess is our power grid from a security standpoint. I promise that
you will find the information startling and appalling, and that
contemporary investigation will reveal little has changed except the
load on the grid and the amount of power we can feed into it.

--
hank alrich * secret mountain
audio recording * music production * sound reinforcement
"If laughter is the best medicine let's take a double dose"

[Jay Kadis]

In article <1fzq218.18j7kt0aez9bgN%walkinay@thegrid.net> writes:
> John L Rice <Drummer@ImJohn.com> wrote:
>
> <snip>
> > Could you explain how this sort of multi-state outage can even happen? If
> > it's really that fragile of a system it seems like it wouldn't take much of
> > a natural disaster or terrorist strike to put the whole of North America in
> > darkness.
>
> I highly recommend this book:
>
> _Brittle Power, Energy Strategy for National Security_
> Amory B. Lovins & L. Hunter Lovins
> Brick House Publishing Company
> ISBN 0-931790-28-X
>
> This first came out in 1982, has a foreword by Admiral Thomas H. Moorer
> and R. James Woolsey, more typos than The Hulk has warts, but lays out
> what a mess is our power grid from a security standpoint. I promise that
> you will find the information startling and appalling, and that
> contemporary investigation will reveal little has changed except the
> load on the grid and the amount of power we can feed into it.
>
> --
> hank alrich * secret mountain
> audio recording * music production * sound reinforcement
> "If laughter is the best medicine let's take a double dose"

Perhaps this is all a way of providing Bush with an excuse for the power
problems in Iraq... "Hey, we can't even keep our OWN power on!"

It didn't even take a UFO this time.

-Jay
--
x------- Jay Kadis ------- x---- Jay's Attic Studio ----x
x Lecturer, Audio Engineer x Dexter Records x
x CCRMA, Stanford University x http://www.offbeats.com/ x
x-------- http://ccrma-www.stanford.edu/~jay/ ----------x

[Bill Thompson]

I spent about five years working for a power company, and my father
spent his entire career at one, so I have a slightly different view than
some...

the great blackout in the winter of 1965 was caused by a transmission
line sagging further than expected under an extremely heavy power load.
What should have been a simple outage in a rural area tripped systems
connected to the affected area, and we ended up with a great example of
the good old dominoe effect<G>.

Since that time a great deal has been done to try to minimize the
possibility of a repeat, believe it or not!

But then came public sentiment against both new generation facilities
and new transmission facilities... all the while demand for power was
increasing. The company I worked for had several "mine mouth" coal fired
plants, located about as far from civilization as you could want. They
also owned an infamous nuclear plant located more or less in the heart
of a populated area. And they owned a lot of transmission lines.

When the company pointed out that they needed either more plants or more
transmission lines the public was quite clear... they didn't want that
stuff in their back yards... but of course they still wanted more power.

Not entirely unlike the situation where people want tax cuts and more
services!

What frightened me though, was the effect all of this had on the public
utility management. The first effect was that the folks who had come up
through the ranks started to lose most of their influence. While once
upon a time the officers of a power company had power company
experience, all of the sudden the companies were looking outside their
industry for leaders. And while this is not always a bad idea, new blood
can bring in new ideas, in this case the new ideas didn't really fall
into line with the charter for a public utility. (The fact that this was
all in preparation for the unregulated power industry was really lost on
most of us... we simply could not imagine that such a thing would come
to pass... ah hindsight!)

But the really scary part was the change in attitude amongst the midddle
management team that really ran the day to day operations. When I
started the predominant attitude was that they were there to guarantee
that everyone had an abundance of clean, safe power. As time passed they
seemed to lose sight of this. I remember very clearly the director of
dispatch, who basically controls the grid, grumbling one day about
public opinion... we were in the middle of a pretty big heat wave, and
we were instructing out industrial customers to shed their loads, and he
pointed out that the best thing that could happen was rolling
black-outs, because then maybe the public would get the message.

This represented a 180 degress change for him. Just the previous winter,
when we were fighting overloads during a cold streak (cold weather was
always a bigger problem than hot weather), this guy spent about 36 hours
straight through in the dispatch center with the transmission and
distribution engineers figuring out ways to manage the load so that
there were no outages. The T&D guys worked in shifts, but the dispatch
boss left the room only for potty breaks. It was, in his mind, his job
to protect the grid. And he did.

He retired not to long after his outburst, his heart just wasn't in it.
And while he was replaced by an engineer he "groomed", the writing was
on the wall.

The power grid is a truly amazing contraption... if you work with it you
can not help but marvel at it as you pass under transmission lines. But
it was built without a lot of thought to securing it, because when it
was built we still believed that terrorists would never act on our soil.

It will be a huge task to secure it, so the industry spends most of it's
security efforts making sure things like yesterdays cascading blackout
can't happen. Clearly they have a little work left to do.

And it isn't because they don't try... Niagra Mohawk, where a lot of
fingers are pointed right now, was one of the most state of the art
operations in the country when I worked in the industry. That was a long
time ago now, so I don't know what impact the changes in the industry
have had on them, but they weren't slouches.

Finally, the system that protects the grids did not fail completely. The
group that manages the grid in Pennsylvania was able to halt the
cascading effect at their borders, which is a good sign.

LeBaron & Alrich wrote:
> John L Rice <Drummer@ImJohn.com> wrote:
>
> <snip>
>
>>Could you explain how this sort of multi-state outage can even happen? If
>>it's really that fragile of a system it seems like it wouldn't take much of
>>a natural disaster or terrorist strike to put the whole of North America in
>>darkness.
>
>
> I highly recommend this book:
>
> _Brittle Power, Energy Strategy for National Security_
> Amory B. Lovins & L. Hunter Lovins
> Brick House Publishing Company
> ISBN 0-931790-28-X
>
> This first came out in 1982, has a foreword by Admiral Thomas H. Moorer
> and R. James Woolsey, more typos than The Hulk has warts, but lays out
> what a mess is our power grid from a security standpoint. I promise that
> you will find the information startling and appalling, and that
> contemporary investigation will reveal little has changed except the
> load on the grid and the amount of power we can feed into it.

[Kurt Albershardt]

Bill Thompson wrote:

> I spent about five years working for a power company, and my father
> spent his entire career at one
>
> --snip excellent recap of the situation then and now --

Change a few words here and there and you have another accurate
narrative about the telecom 'grid' and how it and its management have
changed.



Thanks...

[Bill Thompson]

Hi Kurt,

Sadly I am all to well aware of that. I worked on the fringe of the
Telco industry for 12 years, and watched what was once a truly amazing
structure crumble!

The real crime though, imnoso, was the loss of Bell Labs. That was so
shortsighted as to be criminal!

Bill

Kurt Albershardt wrote:
> Bill Thompson wrote:
>
>> I spent about five years working for a power company, and my father
>> spent his entire career at one
>>
>> --snip excellent recap of the situation then and now --
>
>
> Change a few words here and there and you have another accurate
> narrative about the telecom 'grid' and how it and its management have
> changed.
>
>
>
> Thanks...
>

[Jay Kadis]

In article <xJudnRuTkqTThKCiXTWJhg@giganews.com> Bill Thompson
<bill@audioenterprise.com> writes:
> Hi Kurt,
>
> Sadly I am all to well aware of that. I worked on the fringe of the
> Telco industry for 12 years, and watched what was once a truly amazing
> structure crumble!
>
> The real crime though, imnoso, was the loss of Bell Labs. That was so
> shortsighted as to be criminal!
>
> Bill
>

Bell Labs loss was our gain: Max Mathews and John Pierce.

-Jay
--
x------- Jay Kadis ------- x---- Jay's Attic Studio ----x
x Lecturer, Audio Engineer x Dexter Records x
x CCRMA, Stanford University x http://www.offbeats.com/ x
x-------- http://ccrma-www.stanford.edu/~jay/ ----------x

[Ron Capik]

Jay Kadis wrote:

> >
> > Sadly I am all to well aware of that. I worked on the fringe of the
> > Telco industry for 12 years, and watched what was once a truly amazing
> > structure crumble!
> >
> > The real crime though, imnoso, was the loss of Bell Labs. That was so
> > shortsighted as to be criminal!
> >
> > Bill
> < ..snips... >
> Bell Labs loss was our gain: Max Mathews and John Pierce.
>
> -Jay

Yeah, but those guys left Bell Labs long before the crash.

Ron Capik
--

[Bill Thompson]

Jay Kadis wrote:

> In article <xJudnRuTkqTThKCiXTWJhg@giganews.com> Bill Thompson
> <bill@audioenterprise.com> writes:
>
>>Hi Kurt,
>>
>>Sadly I am all to well aware of that. I worked on the fringe of the
>>Telco industry for 12 years, and watched what was once a truly amazing
>>structure crumble!
>>
>>The real crime though, imnoso, was the loss of Bell Labs. That was so
>>shortsighted as to be criminal!
>>
>>Bill
>>
>
>
> Bell Labs loss was our gain: Max Mathews and John Pierce.

Indeed... the Max's and John's of the world were going to find a home...
but where will the next Max or John come from???

Bill

[Jay Kadis]

In article <U3-dnQt_6oEqvqCiXTWJig@giganews.com> Bill Thompson
<bill@audioenterprise.com> writes:
> Jay Kadis wrote:
>
> > In article <xJudnRuTkqTThKCiXTWJhg@giganews.com> Bill Thompson
> > <bill@audioenterprise.com> writes:
> >
> >>Hi Kurt,
> >>
> >>Sadly I am all to well aware of that. I worked on the fringe of the
> >>Telco industry for 12 years, and watched what was once a truly amazing
> >>structure crumble!
> >>
> >>The real crime though, imnoso, was the loss of Bell Labs. That was so
> >>shortsighted as to be criminal!
> >>
> >>Bill
> >>
> >
> >
> > Bell Labs loss was our gain: Max Mathews and John Pierce.
>
> Indeed... the Max's and John's of the world were going to find a home...
> but where will the next Max or John come from???
>
> Bill

Maybe from CCRMA. But it's getting more difficult to be a Renaissance man like
they were.

-Jay
--
x------- Jay Kadis ------- x---- Jay's Attic Studio ----x
x Lecturer, Audio Engineer x Dexter Records x
x CCRMA, Stanford University x http://www.offbeats.com/ x
x-------- http://ccrma-www.stanford.edu/~jay/ ----------x

[Bill Thompson]

Jay Kadis wrote:

> Maybe from CCRMA. But it's getting more difficult to be a Renaissance man like
> they were.

Well from what I know about CCRMA, they do a real good job of fostering
a research environment... but they'll never have the bucks that Bell
Labs had. Bell Labs were the last of the research for the sake of
research facilities in this country, and they accomplished quite a bit.

It is true that our long distance charges funded part of that research
(maybe even a large part as is often argued), but they also made a fair
penny licensing inventions that they didn't need, and they built a
marvelous telecommunications infrastructure in the process... not to
mention advances in sound for film which eventually led to our own
favorite industries. I think society as a whole benefitted much more
than the cost of long distance service under the evil monopoly!

[John L Rice]

"LeBaron & Alrich" <walkinay@thegrid.net> wrote in message
news:1fzq218.18j7kt0aez9bgN%walkinay@thegrid.net.. .
> John L Rice <Drummer@ImJohn.com> wrote:
>
> <snip>
> > Could you explain how this sort of multi-state outage can even happen?
If
> > it's really that fragile of a system it seems like it wouldn't take much
of
> > a natural disaster or terrorist strike to put the whole of North America
in
> > darkness.
>
> I highly recommend this book:
>
> _Brittle Power, Energy Strategy for National Security_
> Amory B. Lovins & L. Hunter Lovins
> Brick House Publishing Company
> ISBN 0-931790-28-X
>
> This first came out in 1982, has a foreword by Admiral Thomas H. Moorer
> and R. James Woolsey, more typos than The Hulk has warts, but lays out
> what a mess is our power grid from a security standpoint. I promise that
> you will find the information startling and appalling, and that
> contemporary investigation will reveal little has changed except the
> load on the grid and the amount of power we can feed into it.
>
> --
> hank alrich * secret mountain
> audio recording * music production * sound reinforcement
> "If laughter is the best medicine let's take a double dose"

Thank you Hank.

John L Rice
Drummer@ImJohn.com

[John L Rice]

Thanks Bill, interesting stuff!

John L Rice
Drummer@ImJohn.com

"Bill Thompson" <bill@audioenterprise.com> wrote in message
news:zP6dnd6O-s_JnaCiXTWJhw@giganews.com...
> I spent about five years working for a power company, and my father
> spent his entire career at one, so I have a slightly different view than
> some...
>
> the great blackout in the winter of 1965 was caused by a transmission
> line sagging further than expected under an extremely heavy power load.
> What should have been a simple outage in a rural area tripped systems
> connected to the affected area, and we ended up with a great example of
> the good old dominoe effect<G>.
>
> Since that time a great deal has been done to try to minimize the
> possibility of a repeat, believe it or not!
>
> But then came public sentiment against both new generation facilities
> and new transmission facilities... all the while demand for power was
> increasing. The company I worked for had several "mine mouth" coal fired
> plants, located about as far from civilization as you could want. They
> also owned an infamous nuclear plant located more or less in the heart
> of a populated area. And they owned a lot of transmission lines.
>
> When the company pointed out that they needed either more plants or more
> transmission lines the public was quite clear... they didn't want that
> stuff in their back yards... but of course they still wanted more power.
>
> Not entirely unlike the situation where people want tax cuts and more
> services!
>
> What frightened me though, was the effect all of this had on the public
> utility management. The first effect was that the folks who had come up
> through the ranks started to lose most of their influence. While once
> upon a time the officers of a power company had power company
> experience, all of the sudden the companies were looking outside their
> industry for leaders. And while this is not always a bad idea, new blood
> can bring in new ideas, in this case the new ideas didn't really fall
> into line with the charter for a public utility. (The fact that this was
> all in preparation for the unregulated power industry was really lost on
> most of us... we simply could not imagine that such a thing would come
> to pass... ah hindsight!)
>
> But the really scary part was the change in attitude amongst the midddle
> management team that really ran the day to day operations. When I
> started the predominant attitude was that they were there to guarantee
> that everyone had an abundance of clean, safe power. As time passed they
> seemed to lose sight of this. I remember very clearly the director of
> dispatch, who basically controls the grid, grumbling one day about
> public opinion... we were in the middle of a pretty big heat wave, and
> we were instructing out industrial customers to shed their loads, and he
> pointed out that the best thing that could happen was rolling
> black-outs, because then maybe the public would get the message.
>
> This represented a 180 degress change for him. Just the previous winter,
> when we were fighting overloads during a cold streak (cold weather was
> always a bigger problem than hot weather), this guy spent about 36 hours
> straight through in the dispatch center with the transmission and
> distribution engineers figuring out ways to manage the load so that
> there were no outages. The T&D guys worked in shifts, but the dispatch
> boss left the room only for potty breaks. It was, in his mind, his job
> to protect the grid. And he did.
>
> He retired not to long after his outburst, his heart just wasn't in it.
> And while he was replaced by an engineer he "groomed", the writing was
> on the wall.
>
> The power grid is a truly amazing contraption... if you work with it you
> can not help but marvel at it as you pass under transmission lines. But
> it was built without a lot of thought to securing it, because when it
> was built we still believed that terrorists would never act on our soil.
>
> It will be a huge task to secure it, so the industry spends most of it's
> security efforts making sure things like yesterdays cascading blackout
> can't happen. Clearly they have a little work left to do.
>
> And it isn't because they don't try... Niagra Mohawk, where a lot of
> fingers are pointed right now, was one of the most state of the art
> operations in the country when I worked in the industry. That was a long
> time ago now, so I don't know what impact the changes in the industry
> have had on them, but they weren't slouches.
>
> Finally, the system that protects the grids did not fail completely. The
> group that manages the grid in Pennsylvania was able to halt the
> cascading effect at their borders, which is a good sign.
>
> LeBaron & Alrich wrote:
> > John L Rice <Drummer@ImJohn.com> wrote:
> >
> > <snip>
> >
> >>Could you explain how this sort of multi-state outage can even happen?
If
> >>it's really that fragile of a system it seems like it wouldn't take much
of
> >>a natural disaster or terrorist strike to put the whole of North America
in
> >>darkness.
> >
> >
> > I highly recommend this book:
> >
> > _Brittle Power, Energy Strategy for National Security_
> > Amory B. Lovins & L. Hunter Lovins
> > Brick House Publishing Company
> > ISBN 0-931790-28-X
> >
> > This first came out in 1982, has a foreword by Admiral Thomas H. Moorer
> > and R. James Woolsey, more typos than The Hulk has warts, but lays out
> > what a mess is our power grid from a security standpoint. I promise that
> > you will find the information startling and appalling, and that
> > contemporary investigation will reveal little has changed except the
> > load on the grid and the amount of power we can feed into it.
>

[Roger W. Norman]

To make matters worse, a young grad student developed a multidimensional
database that traces all power to it's sources and internet connections
throughout the entire US. I believe Kurt put me onto that info, but it's
public knowledge and the government it trying to shut this guy's thesis
down. Point being that with Woolsey and Moorer it was a "cloud" where all
things took place, and access was the security single point of failure.
When it's cyber attack it's at the single point of failure and hopefully
we're up to the task (Damn, I really should have written that book
"Shutdown" in 1999). Now that the cloud has a schematic there are numerous
security points of vulnerability that can be easily traced. Talk about a
kid who's idea was magnificent but totally at the wrong time and place.
Actually it's just a better done product than my old enterprise network
topography maps, but essentially the same idea. I knew, wherever any
problem existed in the US at IRS offices, exactly where to look and what
circuit to look at. But that was my job, this kid did it from public
records. What if he wasn't the first?

--


Roger W. Norman
SirMusic Studio
Purchase your copy of the Fifth of RAP CD set at www.recaudiopro.net. See
how far $20 really goes.




"LeBaron & Alrich" <walkinay@thegrid.net> wrote in message
news:1fzq218.18j7kt0aez9bgN%walkinay@thegrid.net.. .
> John L Rice <Drummer@ImJohn.com> wrote:
>
> <snip>
> > Could you explain how this sort of multi-state outage can even happen?
If
> > it's really that fragile of a system it seems like it wouldn't take much
of
> > a natural disaster or terrorist strike to put the whole of North America
in
> > darkness.
>
> I highly recommend this book:
>
> _Brittle Power, Energy Strategy for National Security_
> Amory B. Lovins & L. Hunter Lovins
> Brick House Publishing Company
> ISBN 0-931790-28-X
>
> This first came out in 1982, has a foreword by Admiral Thomas H. Moorer
> and R. James Woolsey, more typos than The Hulk has warts, but lays out
> what a mess is our power grid from a security standpoint. I promise that
> you will find the information startling and appalling, and that
> contemporary investigation will reveal little has changed except the
> load on the grid and the amount of power we can feed into it.
>
> --
> hank alrich * secret mountain
> audio recording * music production * sound reinforcement
> "If laughter is the best medicine let's take a double dose"

[Bill Thompson]

Roger W. Norman wrote:
> To make matters worse, a young grad student developed a multidimensional
> database that traces all power to it's sources and internet connections
> throughout the entire US. I believe Kurt put me onto that info, but it's
> public knowledge and the government it trying to shut this guy's thesis
> down. Point being that with Woolsey and Moorer it was a "cloud" where all
> things took place, and access was the security single point of failure.
> When it's cyber attack it's at the single point of failure and hopefully
> we're up to the task (Damn, I really should have written that book
> "Shutdown" in 1999). Now that the cloud has a schematic there are numerous
> security points of vulnerability that can be easily traced. Talk about a
> kid who's idea was magnificent but totally at the wrong time and place.
> Actually it's just a better done product than my old enterprise network
> topography maps, but essentially the same idea. I knew, wherever any
> problem existed in the US at IRS offices, exactly where to look and what
> circuit to look at. But that was my job, this kid did it from public
> records. What if he wasn't the first?

I apologize in advance for being vague... but there are a number of
security issues concerning the public power grid, and obviously I am not
going to spell them out. What I can tell you is that the utilities, at
least when I worked there, took the matter extremely seriously. I doubt
highly that it has slipped that far on the priority list.

While I spelled out the change in attitude amongst the leaders in the
industry, I can't believe that public safety is not still very high on
their priority list. When there is a fault on a 500KV line a tremendous
amount of energy gets dumped into ground. It's lethal!

When we conducted ground fault tests we stood with our feet together...
the bosses would tell tales of cows being electrocuted becuase the
distance between their front and rear legs was far enough to develop a
lethal potential difference. Imagine that!

We spent a lot of time and money securing out facilities, and some of
the measures caused a lot of policical problems for the company. No one
likes it when a utility asks local government to condemns land, and the
usual reaction is that they are a bunch of greedy bastards... but
sometimes it is done simply because there is no other way. The utilities
try every means at their disposal before resorting to that. We used to
have a bullet ridden car on display behind the garage, the result of a
company real estate guy trying to visit a farmer.

The problem with the transmission network today is that you can not hide
it... it is simply too large. That it has never been a target, except in
novels, amazes me.

Since the network can not be hidden, it is designed in a way where it
can be segmented so that if any small part is damaged that part is
immediately isolated.

That makes this weeks blackout all the more mysterious, because I know
that the designed protection is good.

My own suspicion, and that's all it is since I haven't worked in the
industry in a very long time, is that last week the grid ran up against
an inaccurate approximation. The protective devices that segment the
network are designed to trip when a specific parameter is exceeded, and
the calculation of that exception point is based on various assumptions
and trade-offs. If the devices are too sensitive than you end up with
too many trips, which inconveniences the rate-payer. If you make the
threshold too high people can die. Finding the middle point is not trivial.

So my guess is that it really won't matter what started the cascade, any
fault could have done it. The system load was so high because of the
heat, and the generation that was avaiable to meet the load, that the
system was already bordering on instability, so that the slightest fault
would force the system into instability, and the protective devices were
just "that much" too slow.

Hopefully this incident will help regulators focus on the very real
issues associated with power generation, transmission, and distribution,
and not in a knee-jerk fashion. They can then start the process of
educating the public that we need to readjust our attitudes towards
power consumption... and provision.

I don't actually think one incident will have this affect... but I am
free to hope!

[Roger W. Norman]

Security within the mechanism of power generation and transmission aren't
necessarily the security points of failure. It's where things connect to
the rest of the world where architectural drawings have to be on public
file. After all, it's known that Bin Laden and his other structural
engineers really studied the Towers. They were surprised they brought the
Towers down, but it's a lesson that should have been learned. Our
infrastructure of power and telecommunications are the biggest arteries of
blood they could let right now, bringing us to our knees in a matter of
days. This much is obvious. And they need not attack secure facilities
necessarily, in order to bring this about.

With technology available today, it's not only possible, but highly
preferrable to have one's own generating facilities, if naught but for major
grid failures. At least most homes in the proper locations could be
relatively self sufficient with some tax incentives from the government and
allow more grid generated power be available to business.

The point being that it's not a "redundancy" factor in major grid systems
that would overly thwart attacks, it's the fact that if they did attack
these types of faults, it wouldn't necessarily harm the major functions of
people, business and government.

It seems to me that the message is loud and clear. We HAVE to develop more
generating stations, or the people are going to have to take it upon
themselves to maintain their own way of living, which means having
electricity when you want it. I'm actually an advocate of the later, but at
least the more independant the grids are, the less likely catastrophic
failures would occur.

You see, that's the only way I can see to be proactive about thwarting
outside or inside attacks. Since business and people's lives and government
functions are all tons of different things each day, the only common point
between them all is electricity. Hit something that allows that one thing
to stop electricity and you've obviously adversely affected the people,
businesses and government. If there are no major points like that, it
simply can't be done. So this is probably a pretty good representation of
what can happen when government suspends regulation on an industry and what
WE, the people, can expect. The power utilities took it upon themselves and
obviously locked us up tight into a system that can fail in 9 seconds.

So I'd much rather talk about possible solutions. We all know the threats,
and actually now have a very clear understanding of them. I can't see
anything that the government nor the utilities/both could come up with a
plan go assure America power. So I guess I'm saying, in an old new sort of
way - POWER TO THE PEOPLE! <g>

--


Roger W. Norman
SirMusic Studio
Purchase your copy of the Fifth of RAP CD set at www.recaudiopro.net. See
how far $20 really goes.




"Bill Thompson" <bill@audioenterprise.com> wrote in message
news:RtWcnT6cYe6oDKKiU-KYvw@giganews.com...
> Roger W. Norman wrote:
> > To make matters worse, a young grad student developed a multidimensional
> > database that traces all power to it's sources and internet connections
> > throughout the entire US. I believe Kurt put me onto that info, but
it's
> > public knowledge and the government it trying to shut this guy's thesis
> > down. Point being that with Woolsey and Moorer it was a "cloud" where
all
> > things took place, and access was the security single point of failure.
> > When it's cyber attack it's at the single point of failure and hopefully
> > we're up to the task (Damn, I really should have written that book
> > "Shutdown" in 1999). Now that the cloud has a schematic there are
numerous
> > security points of vulnerability that can be easily traced. Talk about
a
> > kid who's idea was magnificent but totally at the wrong time and place.
> > Actually it's just a better done product than my old enterprise network
> > topography maps, but essentially the same idea. I knew, wherever any
> > problem existed in the US at IRS offices, exactly where to look and what
> > circuit to look at. But that was my job, this kid did it from public
> > records. What if he wasn't the first?
>
> I apologize in advance for being vague... but there are a number of
> security issues concerning the public power grid, and obviously I am not
> going to spell them out. What I can tell you is that the utilities, at
> least when I worked there, took the matter extremely seriously. I doubt
> highly that it has slipped that far on the priority list.
>
> While I spelled out the change in attitude amongst the leaders in the
> industry, I can't believe that public safety is not still very high on
> their priority list. When there is a fault on a 500KV line a tremendous
> amount of energy gets dumped into ground. It's lethal!
>
> When we conducted ground fault tests we stood with our feet together...
> the bosses would tell tales of cows being electrocuted becuase the
> distance between their front and rear legs was far enough to develop a
> lethal potential difference. Imagine that!
>
> We spent a lot of time and money securing out facilities, and some of
> the measures caused a lot of policical problems for the company. No one
> likes it when a utility asks local government to condemns land, and the
> usual reaction is that they are a bunch of greedy bastards... but
> sometimes it is done simply because there is no other way. The utilities
> try every means at their disposal before resorting to that. We used to
> have a bullet ridden car on display behind the garage, the result of a
> company real estate guy trying to visit a farmer.
>
> The problem with the transmission network today is that you can not hide
> it... it is simply too large. That it has never been a target, except in
> novels, amazes me.
>
> Since the network can not be hidden, it is designed in a way where it
> can be segmented so that if any small part is damaged that part is
> immediately isolated.
>
> That makes this weeks blackout all the more mysterious, because I know
> that the designed protection is good.
>
> My own suspicion, and that's all it is since I haven't worked in the
> industry in a very long time, is that last week the grid ran up against
> an inaccurate approximation. The protective devices that segment the
> network are designed to trip when a specific parameter is exceeded, and
> the calculation of that exception point is based on various assumptions
> and trade-offs. If the devices are too sensitive than you end up with
> too many trips, which inconveniences the rate-payer. If you make the
> threshold too high people can die. Finding the middle point is not
trivial.
>
> So my guess is that it really won't matter what started the cascade, any
> fault could have done it. The system load was so high because of the
> heat, and the generation that was avaiable to meet the load, that the
> system was already bordering on instability, so that the slightest fault
> would force the system into instability, and the protective devices were
> just "that much" too slow.
>
> Hopefully this incident will help regulators focus on the very real
> issues associated with power generation, transmission, and distribution,
> and not in a knee-jerk fashion. They can then start the process of
> educating the public that we need to readjust our attitudes towards
> power consumption... and provision.
>
> I don't actually think one incident will have this affect... but I am
> free to hope!
>

[ScotFraser]

<< At least most homes in the proper locations could be
relatively self sufficient with some tax incentives from the government and
allow more grid generated power be available to business. >>

The city of Los Angeles will kick in 50% to help homeowners subsidize a solar
retrofit, because they realize it's in the best interests of the city. It would
still cost me about $10,000 to $15,000 to fully run off the sun, so it won't
pay for itself in savings within my lifetime, but would still be a good thing
in general to do.


Scott Fraser

[Steve O'Neill]

Ironically, in the early 1900's, Los Angeles was almost completely
solar-powered. The large energy interests couldn't live with that.


ScotFraser wrote:
> << At least most homes in the proper locations could be
> relatively self sufficient with some tax incentives from the government and
> allow more grid generated power be available to business. >>
>
> The city of Los Angeles will kick in 50% to help homeowners subsidize a solar
> retrofit, because they realize it's in the best interests of the city. It would
> still cost me about $10,000 to $15,000 to fully run off the sun, so it won't
> pay for itself in savings within my lifetime, but would still be a good thing
> in general to do.
>
>
> Scott Fraser

[Kurt Albershardt]

ScotFraser wrote:
>
> The city of Los Angeles will kick in 50% to help homeowners subsidize a solar
> retrofit, because they realize it's in the best interests of the city.

The City of LA did a very smart thing and created an extra rebate for PV
products manufactured within the City--which encouraged Siemens to build
another plant there rather than locating out of state (probably
Washington near a big dam since crystalline PV requires a fair bit of
power and water to make.)


> It would
> still cost me about $10,000 to $15,000 to fully run off the sun, so it won't
> pay for itself in savings within my lifetime, but would still be a good thing
> in general to do.

You're not THAT old, are you?

[Rob Adelman]

ScotFraser wrote:

> << At least most homes in the proper locations could be
> relatively self sufficient with some tax incentives from the government and
> allow more grid generated power be available to business. >>
>
> The city of Los Angeles will kick in 50% to help homeowners subsidize a solar
> retrofit, because they realize it's in the best interests of the city. It would
> still cost me about $10,000 to $15,000 to fully run off the sun, so it won't
> pay for itself in savings within my lifetime, but would still be a good thing
> in general to do.

I think it is the state of California giving the rebate. My brother is
near San Diego and the state did pay for half. But your numbers are way
low. Granted he got a heavy duty system making his house 100% self
sufficient, but it was more like 80 grand. After the rebate that is
still 40 thousand. Seems like not such a good bargain, but he feels good
that he is doing something about the problem. Add on the savings to
operate his Toyota Rav 4 electric and he isn't doing to badly.

[Roger W. Norman]

Will your fricking house to your children and no matter how you look at it,
unless it's removed, it will always stand for your concerns for the
environment without giving enviornmentalists all the power they currently
seem to have, with a healthy dose of money from the United Nations, I might
add. Look at the new Republican backed bill that will give major tax
credits to people that sell their land to the government or the Nature
Conservancy and such. 25% taxes off the sale price of the land granted to a
conservancy group. And it's squat to someone that donates their land to a
church. I'd suggest you take a look at the Wildlands Project if you haven't
already.

But back to the point. Reasoning that the benefits you receive won't be
worth it ignores the fact that the property will escalate in value simply
because of this inclusion. That you might outlive the benefits isn't why we
remodel homes or build play areas for children. ****, in five years they
don't want it anymore. Things are always fluid, but establishing a
guideline or working towards a goal, in the long run, works out better for
everyone. If we have these self aggrandized concepts that what we do in the
TODAY are only of to benefit us, then it negates the argument of doing for
the future.

What I'd like to see, in order to help eliminate this type of perception
would be to negate any capital gains or estate (death) taxes on an inherited
house that had been built to be self sufficient. Clearly there are reasons
to do this. It kinda follows the concept of a nation of individuals. If a
soldier can be an Army of one, then the people can be an American of one.
Clear of thought, consise in decision, able to research any topic within a
single click, and able to thrust back the dark shrouds of the doe-eyed
vacuation and sameness predicted in THX1138. Can anyone deny Prozac? Can
anyone deny a march back towards America, Love It or Leave it? Do we forget
the shame of castigating the Dixie Chicks or Susan Surrandon, Tim Robbins or
Richard Jewel (see, even the Clinton administration can't get out of some
the the ****)? Can we even say what is fair when we can't convict a killer
and yet convict innocents for killings? Somehow, it all comes back to
community, and this has been my thought ever since 9/11. If we refuse to
change, refuse to look the beast in the eye, and refuse to incorporate our
lives into the souls of our communities, then we've lost what actually made
America great. America was the place you built a future. Well, we're there
and there hasn't been a whole lot of building going on lately.

$10k or $15k for those that are building now is a lot less than a retro-fit.
A retro-fit will still save you money. It only takes every homeowner to
look at the figures and make a decision. Those that go for it will be
energy self sufficient. It's really that simple. If you own something,
then nobody can come take it away. They may, however, be able to destroy
it.

--


Roger W. Norman
SirMusic Studio
Purchase your copy of the Fifth of RAP CD set at www.recaudiopro.net. See
how far $20 really goes.




"ScotFraser" <scotfraser@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20030818120056.10819.00000149@mb-m14.aol.com...
> << At least most homes in the proper locations could be
> relatively self sufficient with some tax incentives from the government
and
> allow more grid generated power be available to business. >>
>
> The city of Los Angeles will kick in 50% to help homeowners subsidize a
solar
> retrofit, because they realize it's in the best interests of the city. It
would
> still cost me about $10,000 to $15,000 to fully run off the sun, so it
won't
> pay for itself in savings within my lifetime, but would still be a good
thing
> in general to do.
>
>
> Scott Fraser

[nmm]

On Mon, Aug 18, 2003 2:29 pm, Roger W. Norman
<mailto:rnorman@starpower.net> wrote:
> Can
>anyone deny a march back towards America, Love It or Leave it? Do we
>forget
>the shame of castigating the Dixie Chicks or Susan Surrandon, Tim Robbins
>or
>Richard Jewel

Historical revisionisim. I was watching CNN a few days ago and Larry King
was interviewing Ann Coultier(SP?) who is the authour of books that
describe Tailgunner Joe, the real one not our local one on RAP, as a 'good
guy' and that ahe acted in the best intrests of America.

The Mass media might as well start preaching Holocaust denial as actual
history, It's no differant than rewriting the history of the McCarthy
witchhunts.

Have they No Shame?

[Rob Adelman]

nmm wrote:

> was interviewing Ann Coultier(SP?) who is the authour of books that

Right wing bable. She just loves to hear herself talk.

[ScotFraser]

<< You're not THAT old, are you? >>

I figure I have 15 years to go before nobody will want to hire me anymore.

Scott Fraser

[ScotFraser]

<< But your numbers are way
low. >>

I had heard the figure $20,000 to $30,000 to convert our place to solar.


Scott Fraser

[ScotFraser]

<< Will your fricking house to your children

(Huge snippage equivalent to several Russian novels)

America was the place you built a future. Well, we're there
and there hasn't been a whole lot of building going on lately. $10k or $15k for
those that are building now is a lot less than a retro-fit.
A retro-fit will still save you money. It only takes every homeowner to
look at the figures and make a decision. Those that go for it will be
energy self sufficient. It's really that simple. If you own something,
then nobody can come take it away. >>


So, as I said before in my post which you have constructed an epic monument
upon "it won't pay for itself in savings within my lifetime, but would still be
a good thing in general to do."


Scott Fraser

[Roger W. Norman]

I dare say that, assuming the housing market doesn't end up taking a hit
because of rising mortgage rates, an investment + tax credits (again, I'm
suggesting huge tax credits) will ultimately end up giving one's home a
higher market value. In some cases this could be one of the places where a
tax credit could be used if property taxes are of concern. And it's obvious
that not all homes would be worth the hassle, if we were just talking about
solar, but the concept is to reduce daily costs whilst still retaining our
creature comforts and not place additional burdens on an outdated system
that probably won't really get anything done as an upgrade. Well, maybe if
Bush deals out a whole lot of government money to bolster his power buddies'
earnings without encumbering them with actually investing in the grid.

And it would help stimulate a portion of the economy, which can't hurt. So
it depends on how one views the effort and dollars. If it's just dollars
then the investment isn't worth the effort. But what if the next power
blackout is 20 days from now and takes out one entire grid? Or it happens 5
years from now before we find out that nothing's been done? Or, worse yet,
a power blackout comes from an assault by terrorists, either directly or via
cyber terrorism?

I dare say that all those small restaurants and delis and grocery stores
that had to dispose of all their perishable foods and restock their shelves
will be thinking long and hard about how much that cost vs the foresight to
install an emergency generator/s. I was amazed that numerous hospitals
didn't have emergency generators. That's inconceivable to me. It's obvious
that we've become so used to having power that it's not even a topic of
concern to take steps towards energy self sufficiency at any costs.

Also, I'm still not hearing about any injuries, and that's just not
possible. It appears that we are somewhat being bamboozled again because
there's really NO BAD NEWS. In fact, about the only thing on the news is
finger pointing and some "heroic" stories about what would otherwise be
insignificant acts of kindness.

In the meanwhile, we're not hearing much about the 5,000 French who've died
from their heatwave problems. I know, different subject, but it's
interesting that the news hasn't found so much death worth broadcasting in
any detail. Just numbers, ho hum.

--


Roger W. Norman
SirMusic Studio
Purchase your copy of the Fifth of RAP CD set at www.recaudiopro.net. See
how far $20 really goes.




"Rob Adelman" <radelman@mn.rr.com> wrote in message
news:bhr7q9$2dcrn$1@ID-75267.news.uni-berlin.de...
>
>
> ScotFraser wrote:
>
> > << At least most homes in the proper locations could be
> > relatively self sufficient with some tax incentives from the government
and
> > allow more grid generated power be available to business. >>
> >
> > The city of Los Angeles will kick in 50% to help homeowners subsidize a
solar
> > retrofit, because they realize it's in the best interests of the city.
It would
> > still cost me about $10,000 to $15,000 to fully run off the sun, so it
won't
> > pay for itself in savings within my lifetime, but would still be a good
thing
> > in general to do.
>
> I think it is the state of California giving the rebate. My brother is
> near San Diego and the state did pay for half. But your numbers are way
> low. Granted he got a heavy duty system making his house 100% self
> sufficient, but it was more like 80 grand. After the rebate that is
> still 40 thousand. Seems like not such a good bargain, but he feels good
> that he is doing something about the problem. Add on the savings to
> operate his Toyota Rav 4 electric and he isn't doing to badly.
>

[Roger W. Norman]

Well, if that's all you got out of it, yes, I guess I'd agree. But the
concept wasn't that it would be a good thing to do in general. The concept
is that it's something we must do in order to A) be less dependent upon the
power pirates, and B) diversify our generation/transmission systems so that
it's not vulnerable to some single point of failure attack. I guess both of
those things are good to do, in general.

But hey, I understand about dollars vs investments for minimal, if any,
perceived benefits. It's one of the reasons I can't really do any
remodeling within my house proper, because once I start, then I have to have
all the electrical yanked out of plaster walls and ceilings in order to run
new 12-2 cable (20 amp circuits). That's just the way of it with our
inspection requirements within Montgomery County here in MD. And it would
be kinda hard to do the shingle thing because our 12/12 pitched roof doesn't
give much room to drop the panel wires down into the "attic" crawlspace our
type of roof leaves. But that only ignores the fact that A) I need to redo
the wiring anyway, since the older wiring's insulation is becoming brittle,
and B) I have too good of a surface on my south facing roof to ignore the
benefits of changing over to solar.

It's a major type of decision for some while not even being in the equation
for others.

--


Roger W. Norman
SirMusic Studio
Purchase your copy of the Fifth of RAP CD set at www.recaudiopro.net. See
how far $20 really goes.




"ScotFraser" <scotfraser@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20030819022353.06619.00000344@mb-m28.aol.com...
> << Will your fricking house to your children
>
> (Huge snippage equivalent to several Russian novels)
>
> America was the place you built a future. Well, we're there
> and there hasn't been a whole lot of building going on lately. $10k or
$15k for
> those that are building now is a lot less than a retro-fit.
> A retro-fit will still save you money. It only takes every homeowner to
> look at the figures and make a decision. Those that go for it will be
> energy self sufficient. It's really that simple. If you own something,
> then nobody can come take it away. >>
>
>
> So, as I said before in my post which you have constructed an epic
monument
> upon "it won't pay for itself in savings within my lifetime, but would
still be
> a good thing in general to do."
>
>
> Scott Fraser

[Rob Adelman]

ScotFraser wrote:

> << But your numbers are way
> low. >>
>
> I had heard the figure $20,000 to $30,000 to convert our place to solar.

I think that means after the state's contribution of 50%.

[ScotFraser]

<< Well, if that's all you got out of it, yes, I guess I'd agree. >>

You were taking me to task for thinking it's not worth it to buy energy
independence if I can't make the numbers work right, & I was saying, in
conclusion, even if I can't come out ahead money-wise, it's STILL a good thing
to do.

<< But the
concept wasn't that it would be a good thing to do in general. The concept
is that it's something we must do in order to A) be less dependent upon the
power pirates, and B) diversify our generation/transmission systems so that
it's not vulnerable to some single point of failure attack. I guess both of
those things are good to do, in general.
>>

Specifically, those two reasons are good reasons, generally speaking.

Scott Fraser

[Kurt Albershardt]

ScotFraser wrote:
>
>> $10k or $15k for
>> those that are building now is a lot less than a retro-fit.
>> A retro-fit will still save you money. It only takes every homeowner to
>> look at the figures and make a decision. Those that go for it will be
>> energy self sufficient. It's really that simple. If you own something,
>> then nobody can come take it away.
>
>
> So, as I said before in my post which you have constructed an epic monument
> upon "it won't pay for itself in savings within my lifetime, but would still be
> a good thing in general to do."

As long as electric rates stay the same over that lifetime, a rather
dubious assumption IMO.